Puna Weather
Monday 21st September 2026
Today and Tuesday very humid with scattered to numerous showers and moderate east or northeast winds.
Wednesday through Friday very humid with heavy rain and moderate to breezy easterly winds. Flooding is likely.
All eyes are on the remnant circulation of TD 15E. This storm is pulling deep tropical moisture up from the ITCZ as it heads towards our island from the southeast in response to a mid/upper-level trough to our northwest. Models show the storm stalling just off our southern coast making this a long lived rain event, which greatly increases the chances for flooding.
The mid/upper level trough also brings shear to our neighborhood, and that is likely to keep the storm from developing into a cyclone. Some models show less shear and more development, but these are outlier solutions and should be discounted. Development or not, no current models show a cyclone hitting our island.
The position of 15E just to our south places us in robust onshore flow (easterly) for several days and that's the optimum direction for rain production. I expect between now and Saturday much of our island will see 1 to 2 feet of rain, with some higher amounts likely for Volcano, Fern Acres and our Hamakua coast.
