Puna Weather
Saturday 15th August 2026
At 2am Lala is at 992mb with it's low level circulation heading towards South Point. In the upper atmosphere an upper level trough is beginning to impact the storm with a new outflow channel opening up to the west of our island (see annotated chart). As the upper level trough continues to the west the outflow channel becomes divergent aloft producing efficient ventilation for convection. It is also going to create a sheared environment with the main activity increasing to the north of the center and heading off to the northwest, towards our island. Strongest impacts will be along our southern and eastern coasts and upslope.
With the center decoupling from the convective blob to its north, the main winds will be from strong downdrafts, not from the inner circulation itself, limiting wind speeds to gusts of 50-60mph nearer the coast and up to 80mph for some of our exposed higher terrain. Near or slightly lower than Iselle for much of the area.
As the activity approaches this morning expect rainfall to be intense and last for many hours with periods of very gusty winds.
After the storm center is to our west, tonight, we see 36 to 48 hours of hot and humid southerly flow with plenty more rain.
Lane also decoupled due to an upper level feature, but that one sat parked over our island for 24 hours, this looks more like 12 hours, so I'm guessing half as much rain.
All in all it looks like the outflow channel to the north is about 6 hours too late to bring the center closer to our coast, sparing us the worst of its winds.
