Puna Weather
Wednesday 23rd September 2026
Today and Thursday very humid with heavy rain and moderate to breezy easterly winds.
Friday and Saturday very humid with heavy rain and breezy to strong east or southeast winds. Hurricane conditions are possible.
TD 15E has formed a closed circulation and as such has regained tropical depression status. The storm is being tracked by ADT analysis which currently has 15E at 14.1N and 154W. Most models are initializing the right longitude but are too far north. The ECMWF seems to be spot on.
15E is broad and disorganized so it will take time to form its structure. From the satellite animation shear is less than 12 hours ago. The GFS shows the shear continuing to decrease providing 15E with an environment favorable to further intensification... warm sea surface temperatures, low to moderate shear, and plenty of moist air to work with. As such all models show 15E developing into a cyclone as it moves towards the north in response to a break in the ridge being caused by an upper level trough. The handling of this trough breaks into two camps.
On one side the GFS and the ICON take the trough farther west and south quickly. As the trough moves, 15E continually turns towards it, resulting in a path that avoids our island.
On the other side we have the ECMWF and the CMC which have a more easterly solution for the upper level trough. As 15E moves towards the trough it takes a path over our island.
I have included the ICON and the CMC for validation because this upper level trough is a mid-latitude feature and does not require complex optimizations for tropical storms. They do indeed validate that we still don't have a solution.
Either way we get vast amounts of rain and pretty good wind. If the path over us took place winds would cause extensive damage. I'll post more throughout the day.
