Puna Weather
Friday 28th August 2026
Today through Tuesday light to moderate easterly trade winds and widely scattered showers.
Moisture from ex-Iselle is likely to reach our island Tuesday or Wednesday bringing an increase in humidity along with a minor bump in rainfall.
For the next week or so our attention will be on Tropical Storms Lowell and Karina.
Karina far to our west, nearer Baja California. She was struggling with shear earlier, but recently the shear appears to have relaxed allowing for the storm to become better organized. Karina is currently heading northwest over warm waters and in an environment with plenty of moisture to work with, as such Karina is likely to become a large and powerful hurricane. Mid-week next week Karina is forecast to move north of 20N and over progressively colder waters with dry and stable air above the colder waters, the combination would certainly weaken Karina substaintially. Towards the end of next week ensemble members are split with either taking the remnants north into the northeast Pacific hurricane graveyard or restrengthening the low and moving it west-southwest, more towards us.
Closer to us, and to our southeast is Lowell which is currently struggling with enough easterly shear to fully expose the center and keep most of the convection pushed towards the west. This easterly shear is forecast to continue through the upcoming weekend, then relax over the storm early next week, with most models showing strengthening beginning at that time. Some models bring the storm to major hurricane status next week, if this happens Lowell may be able to protect itself from the mid-level dry as it heads west or west-northwest.
If Karina turns to the west instead of the north next week it changes the pattern over the central Pacific and complicates an already complicated forecast. At this point there is no forecast that is definative. All emsemble members give wildly differing paths for both Karina and Lowell and we're going to have to just watch them and be patient, like really patient because we may still not have a good handle on risks to us for several more days.
