Puna Weather
Sunday 4th January 2026
Today showers, heavy at times, especially for areas south of Hilo. Winds moderate to breezy from the southeast.
Monday and Tuesday rain, torrential at times, capable of bringing flood conditions to much our island. Winds breezy from the east or southeast, could be quite strong at times, capable of downing tree branches and causing power outages. Flooded roads could cause delays in restoring power. Also expect isolated thunderstorms and heavy mountain top snows.
Wednesday moderate easterly trade winds with frequent showers. Some of the showers could be heavy at times.
An upper level trough is diving south near Kauai and will form a closed low aloft just to our west, as the parent trough moves off to the northeast (200mb animation). The closed low aloft stalls just to our west for a day or two... long enough for pressure to lower down to the surface forming a Kona low, much farther east than is typical. This brings colder air aloft to our island along with converging winds near the surface and diverging winds aloft. This convergent/divergent couplet creates lift enhancing the instability.
This pattern, when combined with a surface high to our northeast, will produce strong onshore winds from the east or southeast, which push deep moisture up our slopes (700-300mb moisture animation).
Rains later today through early Wednesday could be widespread and long-lived for an island wide risk of flooding, as models show one to three feet of rain possible... Lane is a good comparison, as it was also an upper level low.
It should be noted that the models have trended closer to our island with the upper level low over the past 48 hours, increasing the likelihood of flooding for us.
