Puna Weather
Tuesday 1st September 2026
It currently appears as though we're going to see both Lowell and Karina pass by us at a safe distance. I'm not even sure how much moisture we'll see.
Since yesterday the GFS (first tendency loop) has come into alignment with the European model (second tendency loop) showing a massive upper level trough to our northeast as Karina approaches. This scenario would steer Karina to the north well before reaching us. Because both models look so similar, confidence is higher in this outcome.
There is the possiblility of Karina becoming annular (infrared loop). If she achieves that she will be more resiliant to dry air interrupting her core and also more resiliant to cooler sea surface temperatures. Annular storms also have a higher beta drift (a natural tendency to turn north in the northern hemisphere). And lastely an annular storm would be steered by upper level flow making it even more responsive to the upper level trough. All in all if Karina becomes annular expect her to stay strong longer and go more north and away from us.
Lowell is strengthening despit continued easterly shear keeping the majority of its convection to the west. The storm will be a hurricane soon and is making a turn towards the northwest. All models and emsemble members keep Lowell well to our south as it passes by.
