Puna Weather
Thursday 19th March 2026
Today light winds and very humid with widely scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could include intense rainfall and gusty winds. Widespread VOG is possible.
Friday through Sunday light to moderate south winds and very humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could include intense rainfall and gusty winds. Widespread VOG is possible.
Monday and Tuesday light to moderate northeast winds with scattered to numerous windward showers.
Wednesday cooler and drier with light to moderate easterly trade winds and widely scattered showers, mostly during the night and early morning hours.
A trough approaching the state from the west is maintaining deep tropical moisture over all Hawaii islands today (satellite water vapor loop). Some colder air aloft is associated with this feature. This colder air will decrease stability and allow for some thunderstorms to form. Flow aloft is from the west, so we may see another thunderstorm form over Hilo this afternoon/early evening.
Another, larger and deeper low forms to our northwest Friday turning flow overhead to southerly and pulling more deep topical moisture over us. Once again colder air aloft associated with this upper level feature supports thunderstorms through Sunday. There is some low level convergence and a jet streak overhead (200mb chart) late Saturday, which could be the peak of activity.
During the last Kona low there was a northeast Pacific high and the winds over us were accelerated between the two features. With this one there is no high pressure to our east, only the low to our west, so I am not expecting the same high winds with this event.
The trough moves off to the east allowing high pressure to rebuild to our north for a return of more typical trade wind weather early next week. Initially the flow is likely to be wetter than normal due to residual moisture in place, but models indicate a drying trend Monday through Wednesday.
The MJO is currently over the western/central Pacific... probably (hard to tell with other signals in place). As such, tropical activity west of the Dateline is possible in a week or so, especially given the 2C greater than normal sea surface temperatures over that region. This will be interesting to keep an eye on. When the MJO is in Phase 7/8 (our basin) it is often followed by a shift in the Pacific high, which helps to explain the drying trend and return of trades next week.
