Puna Weather
Monday 31st August 2026
Today light to moderate easterly trade winds with widely scattered showers.
Tuesday and Wednesday light to moderate easterly trade winds with scattered showers.
Thursday through Sunday light to moderate easterly trade winds humid with periods of heavy rain possible.
Early next week could be very humid with heavy rain... not sure yet.
Tropical storm Lowell continues to struggle with easterly shear keeping the bulk of its deep convection over the western side of the storm. Models are still calling for a decrease in the shear later today allowing Lowell to strengthen into a powerful hurricane as it passes by to the south of our island. The moisture field from Lowell is quite large and we will see an increase in mid and upper level clouds beginning Tuesday, with the deepest moisture and highest humidity due to arrive on Thursday. Some models show Lowell turning towards the northwest once it strengthens and some models keep the storm going mostly west. Over the past 24 hours Lowell has actually moved a little south of west and as such is not going to get close enough to our island for wind to be a problem, regardless of which models are right. Onshore winds are only light to moderate as Lowell passes by, so even with all the extra moisture I'm not expecting flooding issues with Lowell.
Karina is currently peaking or has recently peaked in intensity as a powerful CAT4 hurricane. The storm is currently sitting on the edge of cooler sea surface temperatures to its north and warm waters to its south. Because of this, and the dry and stable air above the cooler waters, convection is mainly on the south side of the storm and this is likely to allow that drier air to eventually work its way into Karina's circulation.
Model runs have been trending south with Karina, with many now keeping the storm south of 19N with at least part of its circulation over warmer waters the entire way west. Dry air to the north of Karina is likely to keep the storm from becoming annular and because of this Karina is likely to weaken into a minimal hurricane as it heads west through a vast area of only 40% humidity.
Current forecasts show an upper level trough near our island as Karina approaches. The GFS has this feature to our northwest and doesn't turn Karina until it's close enough to bring deep moisture to our island. On the other hand, the ECMWF model shows this trough farther to the east and as such turns Karina well before reaching our longitude.
