Puna Weather
Thursday 24th September 2026
Today very humid with heavy rain and breezy easterly winds.
Friday and Saturday (especially Friday night) stormy conditions with intense rain lasting for a long time and causing widespread flooding. Gusty winds from the east.
Sunday and Monday less humid with scattered showers and moderate easterly trade winds.
Westerly shear remains persistent, though low enough to allow for gradual strengthening. The heading has turned to north at a slow speed, which will increase soon. This steering flow places Nolo on a NNE trajectory, towards our island, until the high (see graphic) can build in behind the departing upper level trough. All the models, save HMON, show 18N as the most northerly point before turning towards the southwest, in one case southeast (that's odd). All models continue to strengthen Nolo while its moving towards our island showing a powerful hurricane during its closest approach.
Nolo has not made much northerly progress over the past day, so the north turn starts at a more southerly point and ends at a more southerly point supporting the scenario that damaging winds remain offshore, except at higher elevations and downwind of slopes.
Deep tropical air from the ITCZ is being pulled north by Nolo and will continue to flow over our island through Saturday or Sunday. Some of the models show low and mid-level convergent flow over us Friday night into early Saturday.
With high pressure to our east and Nolo approaching from the south winds will be from the east and be pretty windy at times. The latest GFS shows winds rising gradually from now to become strongest Friday night. Because the strongest winds and high moisture and greatest low level convergence all occur at the same time, and the wind direction is from the east (mountains cause air to rise), rainfall rates look to be pretty crazy late Friday into early Saturday. Flooding looks likely.
