Puna Weather
Monday 10th August 2026
Possible hurricane this weekend
Today through early Friday humid with light to moderate easterly trade winds and widely scattered showers.
Late Friday through Sunday possible storm conditions!
This week all eyes are on Invest 93C which is likely to strengthen into a tropical cyclone as shear begins to relax over the system in a day or two. Currently models and satellite animations show about 20kts of westerly shear over 93C. As the Invest moves slowly north or northwest shear turns to northerly, then drops to near zero Wednesday or Thursday. With very warm sea surface temperatures along its path, it is likely to strengthen as it approaches. The main limiting factor is mid-level dry air along the same path, which will hopefully keep the storm from reaching its fullest potential.
For the past few days we've been wondering if another low to the east of 93C would help to pull the storm north, but models have been showing strong northerly shear over the more easterly low, preventing it from strengthening much, and in turn making it less of an influence on 93C's path.
Various model runs are showing the storm jogging north just before passing by us... I am suspect of this idea as the steering flow for a 985mb low is around 500mb and that is from the northeast, so we're not out of the woods yet.
The low hasn't formed yet, and models could change their tune over the next few days, in the mean time you should be preparing for a possible repeat of Iselle or stronger, possibly significantly stronger.
