Puna Weather
Sunday 9th August 2026
Late day update on Invest 93C
Models continue to be split on whether or not 93C will move towards the second, more east, low L2. The GFS final run shows the cyclone jogging northeast on Wednesday, and then north, whereas the AIGFS shows much less interaction between the two lows, with 93C heading northwest instead. We see similar spread in the GFS and European model ensambles. It looks like we may have to wait until Wednesday to see what happens, unless we gain model convergence before then.
I've included the most recent ensemble models so you can see the wide spread in solutions even within the same model. Don't be led astray by the final output, it inspires false confidence at this point.
Currently 93C is over very warm waters, 29C, which would allow for strengthening, except that it is under substantial easterly shear and this will prevent the storm from organizing for another couple of days, at which point the storm will still be over 29C seas and could develop quickly if the shear subsides. If the storm takes a path towards us, the road is paved with very warm waters and that's why this is a potentially dangerous scenario for us.
