Puna Weather
Saturday 12th September 2026
Today through Sunday less humid with light to moderate easterly trade winds and widely scattered showers, mostly during the night and early morning hours.
Beginning Monday or Tuesday hot and humid with scattered showers, possible heavy at times. Winds light to moderate from the east.
Trades may be weak, but they're bringing drier air to our island from the east and that's welcome relief from the tropical humidity we've been in the past week.
Our next weather maker is a weak low in the ITCZ to our southeast which moves towards us bringing another round of tropical moisture beginning Monday or Tuesday. Close on the heels of this moisture surge is even more moisture as Tropical Storm Norbert, or its remnants, may be headed our way.
The GFS brings Norbert's moisture to our island around Thursday as an open wave... no wind issues, just a lot of rain (provided it tracks west with the prevailing trade flow).
The European model still thinks Norbert will be pushed south by a building ridge. To the south Norbert would be in an environment with plenty of moisture to work with and very warm sea surface temperatures. As such the European model adverstises the possibility of Norbert strengthening before heading our way. Due to the European model detour to the south, it has Norbert arriving a few days later than the GFS.
Currently Norbert has finally overcome westerly shear with some outflow on that side evident on satellite loops. But now the storm has to contend with southerly shear and mid-level dry air working its way in from the southeast.
If Norbert can survive, the big question looks to be whether or not the storm tracks far enough north to be over colder waters and get sheared apart by a jet streak near 20N. The European model keeps Norbert south of 18N with the center avoiding both of those hostile factors. The GFS pushes Norbert up to 20N and straight into the high shear.
Yesterday at this time Norbert was strengthening despite westerly shear, tonight it has weakened slightly with dry air working it's way in from the south. Who knows what tomorrow will bring?
