Puna Weather
Friday 14th August 2026
This is the peak of the daily cycle for tropical storms and it's also when we see the center of circulation align with the deepest convection for the first time (visible infrared satellite loop). ADT analysis shows gradual, but consistent strengthening over the past few hours. There is currently a strong outflow channel to the northeast helping to support the massive convective complex on that side (water vapor loop). The GFS keeps this outflow channel tracking west-northwest with Lala and brings even stronger divergence aloft just north of the center as it approaches tomorrow morning (200mb chart). If this scenario holds out, it is possible the GFS is correct in bringing this storm to our shores at 986mb or a CAT1 hurricane.
Our best hope is for dry air to limit the strengthening over the next 24 hours.
Because the strongest winds and rain are on the north side of the storm as it approaches, expect the worst conditions to happen all the way from HOVE to Kalani, Nanawale, Hilo, and the Hamakua coast. At this point Lala does not have winds as strong as Iselle did, but its still got over 24 hours to strengthen and just before moving onshore or barely to our south, it will be under that divergence in the upper atmosphere, essentially super-charging the storm by providing efficient exhaust for the northern portion of Lala.
When you look at the NHC chart keep in mind the path is for the center of the circulation, the strongest winds are north of this path.
